Transdigm Group Incorporated TDG

Revenue Intelligence Report • 69 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-27

Transdigm Group Incorporated's latest quarterly revenue is $2.7B for the period ending 2026-06-27. The model projects $11.2B across the next four quarters (+12.3% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 7.4%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-27. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$11.2B
+12.3% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$5.27 per $1
Training Fit
4.4% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q3 FY2026): The model predicted $2.54B vs the actual $2.74B — an error of 7.4%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Transdigm Group Incorporated does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

TDG Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-27		 $2.54B $2.74B $2.17B–$2.97B +13.5% ✓ In range
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-27		 $2.69B $2.27B–$3.17B +10.3%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2026-12-27		 $2.73B $2.29B–$3.27B +19.6%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-27		 $2.92B $2.41B–$3.54B +15.0%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-27		 $2.89B $2.35B–$3.55B +5.4%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Transdigm Group Incorporated's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Oct–Dec) 0.9751 -2.5% In line with trend 17
FQ2 (Jan–Mar) 1.0036 +0.4% In line with trend 17
FQ3 (Apr–Jun) 1.0038 +0.4% In line with trend 17
FQ4 (Jul–Sep) 1.0373 +3.7% +3.7% above trend 17

Spending and Revenue

TDG Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 69 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.6213x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -7.4%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 69 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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