Republic Services, Inc. RSG

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Republic Services, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $4.4B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $16.8B across the next four quarters (-0.6% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 5.4%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$16.8B
-0.6% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$9.30 per $1
Training Fit
3.3% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $4.19B vs the actual $4.43B — an error of 5.4%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Republic Services, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

RSG Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $4.19B $4.43B $3.95B–$4.44B -1.0% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $4.20B $3.85B–$4.54B -0.4%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $4.21B $3.78B–$4.63B +1.7%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $4.17B $3.68B–$4.65B +1.3%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $4.22B $3.67B–$4.76B -4.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Republic Services, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9711 -2.9% In line with trend 17
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0105 +1.0% In line with trend 17
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0027 +0.3% In line with trend 17
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9881 -1.2% In line with trend 17

Spending and Revenue

RSG Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.4839x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Want this analysis for your portfolio?

I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.

Get in Touch

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 73 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

More in Industrials

PKG RTX PH EME FIX EMR TXT IEX