Deere & Co DE

Revenue Intelligence Report • 40 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-08-02

Deere & Co's latest quarterly revenue is $12.6B for the period ending 2026-08-02. The model projects $42.5B across the next four quarters (-11.4% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 1.0%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-08-02. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$42.5B
-11.4% YoY
R&D Elasticity
-2.03x
SG&A Elasticity
0.17x
Training Fit
4.6% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q3 FY2026): The model predicted $12.48B vs the actual $12.61B — an error of 1.0%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Revenue Forecast

DE Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-08-02		 $12.48B $12.61B $11.14B–$13.99B +3.9% ✓ In range
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-11-02		 $11.53B $9.81B–$13.55B -7.0%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-02-02		 $8.06B $6.61B–$9.82B -16.1%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-05-02		 $11.78B $9.38B–$14.80B -11.9%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-08-02		 $11.16B $8.65B–$14.40B -11.5%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Deere & Co's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Dec–Feb) 0.9819 -1.8% In line with trend 9
FQ2 (Mar–May) 1.0157 +1.6% In line with trend 9
FQ3 (Jun–Aug) 0.9891 -1.1% In line with trend 9
FQ4 (Sep–Nov) 0.9844 -1.6% In line with trend 9

Spending and Revenue

DE Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 40 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.3319x • R&D elasticity: -0.6875x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 40 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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