Caterpillar Inc CAT

Revenue Intelligence Report • 62 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Caterpillar Inc's latest quarterly revenue is $20.5B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $73.7B across the next four quarters (-1.3% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 11.0%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$73.7B
-1.3% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$-11.15 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$9.19 per $1
Training Fit
4.5% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $18.29B vs the actual $20.54B — an error of 11.0%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Revenue Forecast

CAT Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $18.29B $20.54B $16.76B–$19.81B +10.4% ✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $17.92B $15.76B–$20.08B +1.6%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $18.61B $15.96B–$21.25B -2.8%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $18.34B $15.29B–$21.39B +5.3%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $18.86B $15.45B–$22.27B -8.2%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Caterpillar Inc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9878 -1.2% In line with trend 15
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0349 +3.5% +3.5% above trend 14
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0101 +1.0% In line with trend 14
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9908 -0.9% In line with trend 14

Spending and Revenue

CAT Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 62 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.1335x • R&D elasticity: 0.6238x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 62 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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