Hologic Inc HOLX

Revenue Intelligence Report • 53 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Hologic Inc has a forecasted full-year revenue of $5.4B, a +30.8% year-over-year change, based on 53 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 1.09x). The ARDL model has 865.8% MAPE.

Investment Thesis

At 865.8% MAPE, the model captures Hologic Inc's broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. R&D spending currently shows a negative elasticity (-3.22x), which can indicate heavy investment in long-cycle initiatives not yet reflected in revenue. Sales & marketing spend shows a 1.09x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue
$5.36B
+30.8% YoY
R&D Elasticity
-3.22x
SG&A Elasticity
1.09x
Model Accuracy
865.8% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.3B vs the actual $1.0B — an error of 19.6%.
⚠ Model limitation: This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Investor insight: Actual revenue ($1.0B) came in 20% below the spending-based forecast ($1.3B). This suggests spending is not yet translating to revenue at historical rates.

Revenue Forecast

HOLX Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q3 2025 $1.3B $1.0B $0.1B – $11B +23.9% ✓ In range
Q4 2025 $1.0B $0.0B – $22B -5.5%
Q1 2026 $1.2B $0.0B – $53B +16.6%
Q2 2026 $1.4B $0.0B – $113B +36.3%
Q3 2026 $1.8B $0.0B – $249B +74.4%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Hologic Inc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov) 1.0 +0.0% In line with trend 0
FQ2 (Dec–Feb) 1.496 +49.6% +49.6% above trend 17
FQ3 (Mar–May) 1.2072 +20.7% +20.7% above trend 16
FQ4 (Jun–Aug) 0.9437 -5.6% -5.6% below trend 17

How Spending Drives Revenue

HOLX Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. Model: ARDL (log-log) with 53 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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