Hologic Inc HOLX

Revenue Intelligence Report • 53 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-06

Hologic Inc's revenue is primarily driven by its investments in SG&A, which yield a positive elasticity of 1.08%, indicating that increased spending in this area effectively boosts revenue. Conversely, R&D investments exhibit a negative elasticity of -3.34%, suggesting a less favorable return on investment in this domain. Despite a recent holdout test revealing a significant prediction error, the company projects a robust FY revenue forecast of $5 billion, reflecting a 30.8% year-over-year growth. This outlook underscores the potential for continued revenue expansion, contingent on optimizing spending strategies.

Next FY Revenue

$5.36B

+30.8% YoY

R&D Elasticity

-3.34x

SG&A Elasticity

1.08x

Model Accuracy

865.8% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $1B vs the actual $1B — an error of 19.6%.

⚠ Model limitation: This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.

Investor insight: Actual revenue ($1B) came in 20% below the spending-based forecast ($1B). This suggests spending is not yet translating to revenue at historical rates.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q3 2025	$1B	$1B	$0B – $11B	+23.9%	✓ In range
Q4 2025	$1B		$0B – $22B	-5.5%
Q1 2026	$1B		$0B – $53B	+16.6%
Q2 2026	$1B		$0B – $113B	+36.3%
Q3 2026	$2B		$0B – $249B	+74.4%

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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