Leidos Holdings, Inc. LDOS
Revenue Intelligence Report • 50 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Leidos Holdings, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $18B, a +4.3% year-over-year change, based on 50 quarters of SEC filing data. The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 3.7% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (3.7% MAPE), suggesting Leidos Holdings, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns.
Next FY Revenue
$17.9B
+4.3% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
-0.10x
Model Accuracy
3.7% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $4.4B vs the actual $4.2B — an error of 3.6%.
⚠ Model limitation:
This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Note:
Leidos Holdings, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $4.4B | $4.2B | $4.0B – $4.8B | -0.2% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $4.4B | $3.8B – $5.1B | +3.8% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $4.5B | $3.8B – $5.3B | +4.8% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $4.5B | $3.7B – $5.5B | +0.8% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $4.5B | $3.7B – $5.7B | +8.1% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Leidos Holdings, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0077 | +0.8% | In line with trend | 14 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.027 | +2.7% | In line with trend | 9 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9918 | -0.8% | In line with trend | 13 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0014 | +0.1% | In line with trend | 13 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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