Lowes Companies Inc LOW

Revenue Intelligence Report • 69 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue growth appears to be driven primarily by SG&A spending, with a 1% increase in SG&A linked to a 1.40% rise in revenue in this log-log framework; R&D data is not available to attribute any lift to R&D. The model shows solid predictive performance, with a 4.3% MAPE and a holdout error of 1.9% (actual $21.0B vs predicted $20.0B), supporting reliability for near-term forecasts. The FY forecast implies about $84B in revenue, essentially flat year over year, signaling limited top-line growth despite the SG&A-driven upside potential. For investors, SG&A appears to be a revenue lever with potential ROI if spending is efficiently targeted; however, the absence of other growth drivers and a modest outlook suggest the near-term catalysts for meaningful revenue expansion are limited.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (4.3% MAPE), suggesting Lowes Companies Inc's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Sales & marketing spend shows a 1.40x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue
$84.3B
+0.0% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.40x
Model Accuracy
4.3% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $20B vs the actual $21B — an error of 1.9%.
Note: Lowes Companies Inc does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

LOW Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $20B $21B $18B – $23B +1.3% ✓ In range
Q1 2026 $19B $16B – $22B +1.0%
Q2 2026 $21B $17B – $26B +2.0%
Q3 2026 $23B $19B – $30B -2.4%
Q4 2026 $21B $16B – $27B -0.2%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Lowes Companies Inc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov) 0.9851 -1.5% In line with trend 17
FQ2 (Dec–Feb) 1.0146 +1.5% In line with trend 16
FQ3 (Mar–May) 0.9922 -0.8% In line with trend 16
FQ4 (Jun–Aug) 1.0326 +3.3% +3.3% above trend 16

How Spending Drives Revenue

LOW Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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