Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. NCLH
Revenue Intelligence Report • 56 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $8.3B, a -15.7% year-over-year change, based on 56 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 1.96x). The ARDL model has 45.2% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
At 45.2% MAPE, the model captures Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.'s broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Sales & marketing spend shows a 1.96x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$8.29B
-15.7% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.96x
Model Accuracy
45.2% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $2.8B vs the actual $2.2B — an error of 26.6%.
Note:
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Investor insight:
Actual revenue ($2.2B) came in 27% below the spending-based forecast ($2.8B). This suggests spending is not yet translating to revenue at historical rates.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $2.8B | $2.2B | $1.0B – $7.8B | +34.7% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $2.3B | $0.5B – $9.5B | +7.4% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $2.0B | $0.4B – $12B | -18.8% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $2.1B | $0.3B – $15B | -30.2% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $1.9B | $0.2B – $18B | -15.1% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.1999 | +20.0% | +20.0% above trend | 13 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0001 | +0.0% | In line with trend | 13 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.949 | -5.1% | -5.1% below trend | 13 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.284 | +28.4% | +28.4% above trend | 13 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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