Pultegroup, Inc. PHM

Revenue Intelligence Report • 63 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue is driven by SG&A spending, with a modest elasticity of about 0.14% increase in revenue for each 1% rise in SG&A, implying selling and marketing initiatives contribute positively to the top line but with limited leverage. The ROI of SG&A appears positive but modest, given the small elasticity and a holdout test showing around a 9% forecast miss (predicted $5.0B vs actual $4.6B), indicating some forecast sensitivity to spend and mix. Latest quarterly revenue was $4,611M, and the full-year forecast is $19B, up 10.8% year over year, signaling solid demand and a favorable growth trajectory. Outlook remains constructive with double-digit revenue growth expected, though investors should monitor margins and operating leverage to gauge true ROIC on SG&A investments alongside top-line gains.

Investment Thesis

At 8.6% MAPE, the model captures Pultegroup, Inc.'s broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.14x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue
$19.2B
+10.8% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.14x
Model Accuracy
8.6% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $5.0B vs the actual $4.6B — an error of 9.1%.
Note: Pultegroup, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

PHM Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $5.0B $4.6B $4.1B – $6.2B +2.2% ✓ In range
Q2 2026 $4.3B $3.2B – $5.9B +11.5%
Q3 2026 $4.7B $3.2B – $6.8B +6.8%
Q4 2026 $4.8B $3.2B – $7.4B +9.9%
Q1 2027 $5.3B $3.3B – $8.6B +15.1%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Pultegroup, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov) 1.0401 +4.0% +4.0% above trend 16
FQ2 (Dec–Feb) 0.9992 -0.1% In line with trend 13
FQ3 (Mar–May) 0.929 -7.1% -7.1% below trend 15
FQ4 (Jun–Aug) 1.0339 +3.4% +3.4% above trend 15

How Spending Drives Revenue

PHM Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. Model: ARDL (log-log) with 63 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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