Pultegroup, Inc. PHM

Revenue Intelligence Report • 63 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-06

Pultegroup, Inc. demonstrates a strong correlation between its selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses and revenue growth, with a 1% increase in SG&A resulting in a 0.19% rise in revenue, indicating effective spending strategies. Despite a recent holdout test revealing a 9.1% underestimation of revenue, the company's model accuracy remains robust with an 8.6% MAPE. Looking ahead, Pultegroup is forecasting a revenue of $19 billion for the fiscal year, reflecting a solid 10.8% year-over-year growth, suggesting a positive outlook for investors. Overall, the company's ability to leverage its expenditures for revenue generation positions it favorably in the market.

Next FY Revenue

$19.19B

+10.8% YoY

SG&A Elasticity

0.19x

Model Accuracy

8.6% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $5B vs the actual $5B — an error of 9.1%.

Note: Pultegroup, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$5B	$5B	$4B – $6B	+2.2%	✓ In range
Q2 2026	$4B		$3B – $6B	+11.5%
Q3 2026	$5B		$3B – $7B	+6.8%
Q4 2026	$5B		$3B – $7B	+9.9%
Q1 2027	$5B		$3B – $9B	+15.1%

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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