S&p Global Inc. SPGI
Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
S&p Global Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $17B, a +11.3% year-over-year change, based on 70 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($1.48 per $1). The ARDL model has 6.2% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (6.2% MAPE), suggesting S&p Global Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $1.48 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$17.1B
+11.3% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$1.48 per $1
Model Accuracy
6.2% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $4.0B vs the actual $3.9B — an error of 3.0%.
Note:
S&p Global Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $4.0B | $3.9B | $3.8B – $4.3B | +12.3% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $4.1B | $3.7B – $4.5B | +9.1% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $4.2B | $3.7B – $4.7B | +11.9% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $4.3B | $3.8B – $4.8B | +11.0% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $4.4B | $3.8B – $5.0B | +13.2% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture S&p Global Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9684 | -3.2% | -3.2% below trend | 17 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0026 | +0.3% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0034 | +0.3% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0345 | +3.5% | +3.5% above trend | 16 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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