What is WY's forecasted revenue?

Weyerhaeuser Co is forecasted to generate $7.84B in FY revenue, representing +13.5% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the WY revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 7.9% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $1.8B versus the actual $1.5B.

Weyerhaeuser Co WY

Revenue Intelligence Report • 56 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue drivers appear to be SG&A spending, which shows a positive elasticity of 0.51% in revenue per 1% SG&A increase, while R&D displays a small negative elasticity of -0.06%. The model uses 56 quarters of data and achieves 7.9% MAPE, but a holdout test overpredicted by about 17% (1.8B forecast vs 1.5B actual), signaling forecasting uncertainty. The FY revenue forecast is 7.8B, about 13.5% higher year over year, implying a solid top-line trajectory if SG&A-driven momentum sustains. Investors should weigh the positive ROI implied by SG&A spending against the limited revenue contribution from R&D and the model’s known error margins when assessing the outlook.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (7.9% MAPE), suggesting Weyerhaeuser Co's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. R&D spending currently shows a negative elasticity (-0.06x), which can indicate heavy investment in long-cycle initiatives not yet reflected in revenue. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.51x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue

$7.84B

+13.5% YoY

R&D Elasticity

-0.06x

SG&A Elasticity

0.51x

Model Accuracy

7.9% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.8B vs the actual $1.5B — an error of 17.1%.

⚠ Model limitation: This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.

Investor insight: Actual revenue ($1.5B) came in 17% below the spending-based forecast ($1.8B). This suggests spending is not yet translating to revenue at historical rates.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$1.8B	$1.5B	$1.4B – $2.2B	+5.6%	✓ In range
Q2 2026	$1.9B		$1.4B – $2.6B	+7.0%
Q3 2026	$1.9B		$1.3B – $2.8B	+3.3%
Q4 2026	$2.0B		$1.3B – $3.1B	+15.8%
Q1 2027	$2.0B		$1.2B – $3.3B	+31.0%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Weyerhaeuser Co's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov)	0.975	-2.5%	In line with trend	14
FQ2 (Dec–Feb)	0.9428	-5.7%	-5.7% below trend	14
FQ3 (Mar–May)	1.0303	+3.0%	+3.0% above trend	13
FQ4 (Jun–Aug)	1.0522	+5.2%	+5.2% above trend	14

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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