Archer-Daniels-Midland Co ADM

Revenue Intelligence Report • 14 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Archer-Daniels-Midland Co's latest quarterly revenue is $6.4B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $24.4B across the next four quarters (-2.2% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 2.5%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$24.4B
-2.2% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.59x
Training Fit
1.5% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $6.22B vs the actual $6.39B — an error of 2.5%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Archer-Daniels-Midland Co does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

ADM Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $6.22B $6.39B $6.00B–$6.46B -1.9% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $6.23B $5.91B–$6.56B -3.0%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $6.04B $5.67B–$6.44B -0.1%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $6.01B $5.58B–$6.47B -2.1%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $6.17B $5.68B–$6.70B -3.4%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Archer-Daniels-Midland Co's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9937 -0.6% In line with trend 3
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0002 +0.0% In line with trend 2
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.9999 -0.0% In line with trend 3
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9941 -0.6% In line with trend 3

Spending and Revenue

ADM Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 14 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.7783x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Want this analysis for your portfolio?

I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.

Get in Touch

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 14 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

More in Consumer Defensive

DG COST GPC TGT HRL GIS DLTR CL