What is TSN's forecasted revenue?

Tyson Foods, Inc. is forecasted to generate $56.6B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +1.7% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the TSN revenue forecast model?

The model has 2.7% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $14B versus the actual $14B.

Tyson Foods, Inc. TSN

Revenue Intelligence Report • 64 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-27

Tyson Foods, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $13.9B for the period ending 2026-06-27. The model projects $56.6B across the next four quarters (+1.7% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 1.9%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-27. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$56.6B

+1.7% YoY

SG&A Multiplier

$5.84 per $1

Training Fit

2.7% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q3 FY2026): The model predicted $14.14B vs the actual $13.87B — an error of 1.9%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: Tyson Foods, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-27	$14.14B	$13.87B	$13.37B–$14.90B	+1.8%	✓ In range
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-27	$14.12B		$13.04B–$15.20B	+1.9%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2026-12-27	$14.09B		$12.76B–$15.42B	-1.6%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-27	$14.04B		$12.51B–$15.57B	+2.8%
Q3 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-27	$14.37B		$12.66B–$16.08B	+3.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Tyson Foods, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Nov–Jan)	0.9874	-1.3%	In line with trend	15
FQ2 (Feb–Apr)	0.993	-0.7%	In line with trend	15
FQ3 (May–Jul)	1.0197	+2.0%	In line with trend	14
FQ4 (Aug–Oct)	1.0134	+1.3%	In line with trend	15

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 64 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.1634x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Want this analysis for your portfolio?

I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.

Get in Touch

More in Consumer Defensive

CL KO COST TGT CPB CHD DG PG