Constellation Brands, Inc. STZ

Revenue Intelligence Report • 38 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-08-31

Constellation Brands, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $2.6B for the period ending 2026-08-31. The model projects $9.0B across the next four quarters (-2.7% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 6.5%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-08-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$8.96B
-2.7% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$1.79 per $1
Training Fit
4.7% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2027): The model predicted $2.46B vs the actual $2.63B — an error of 6.5%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Constellation Brands, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

STZ Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2026-08-31		 $2.46B $2.63B $2.22B–$2.70B -0.8% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2026-11-30		 $2.18B $1.84B–$2.52B -1.8%
Q4 FY2027
Period end 2027-02-28		 $2.04B $1.62B–$2.46B +6.2%
Q1 FY2028
Period end 2027-05-31		 $2.36B $1.88B–$2.84B -2.8%
Q2 FY2028
Period end 2027-08-31		 $2.38B $1.84B–$2.91B -9.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Constellation Brands, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Mar–May) 1.0238 +2.4% In line with trend 9
FQ2 (Jun–Aug) 1.0029 +0.3% In line with trend 8
FQ3 (Sep–Nov) 0.9995 -0.0% In line with trend 8
FQ4 (Dec–Feb) 0.9545 -4.6% -4.6% below trend 8

Spending and Revenue

STZ Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 38 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.6974x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 38 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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