Procter & Gamble Co PG

Revenue Intelligence Report • 72 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Procter & Gamble Co's latest quarterly revenue is $21.2B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $88.9B across the next four quarters (+2.1% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 2.1%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$88.9B
+2.1% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$0.89 per $1
Training Fit
2.6% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q4 FY2026): The model predicted $21.64B vs the actual $21.20B — an error of 2.1%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Procter & Gamble Co does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

PG Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $21.64B $21.20B $20.43B–$22.85B +3.6% ✓ In range
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2026-09-30		 $22.45B $20.74B–$24.16B +0.3%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2026-12-31		 $22.67B $20.57B–$24.76B +2.1%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $21.66B $19.24B–$24.07B +2.0%
Q4 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $22.11B $19.41B–$24.81B +4.3%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Procter & Gamble Co's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jul–Sep) 1.0083 +0.8% In line with trend 17
FQ2 (Oct–Dec) 0.9918 -0.8% In line with trend 17
FQ3 (Jan–Mar) 0.9925 -0.7% In line with trend 17
FQ4 (Apr–Jun) 1.0021 +0.2% In line with trend 16

Spending and Revenue

PG Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 72 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.4227x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 72 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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