Genuine Parts Co GPC

Revenue Intelligence Report • 38 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Genuine Parts Co's latest quarterly revenue is $6.5B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $25.4B across the next four quarters (+1.2% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 4.4%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$25.4B
+1.2% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.80x
Training Fit
3.0% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $6.25B vs the actual $6.54B — an error of 4.4%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Genuine Parts Co does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

GPC Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $6.25B $6.54B $5.57B–$7.01B +1.4% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $6.30B $5.52B–$7.19B +0.6%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $6.29B $5.40B–$7.34B +4.7%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $6.39B $5.38B–$7.60B +2.1%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $6.38B $5.24B–$7.75B -2.5%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Genuine Parts Co's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9875 -1.2% In line with trend 10
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0219 +2.2% In line with trend 9
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0327 +3.3% +3.3% above trend 9
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.976 -2.4% In line with trend 9

Spending and Revenue

GPC Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 38 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.3992x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -4.4%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 38 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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