Target Corporation TGT

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-08-01

Target Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $26.5B for the period ending 2026-08-01. The model projects $115B across the next four quarters (+6.7% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 0.6%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-08-01. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$114.9B
+6.7% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.93x
Training Fit
2.8% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2027): The model predicted $26.69B vs the actual $26.54B — an error of 0.6%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Target Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

TGT Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2026-08-01		 $26.69B $26.54B $24.71B–$28.82B +5.9% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2026-11-01		 $26.81B $24.04B–$29.89B +6.1%
Q4 FY2027
Period end 2027-02-01		 $32.01B $28.02B–$36.58B +5.1%
Q1 FY2028
Period end 2027-05-01		 $27.80B $23.83B–$32.42B +9.3%
Q2 FY2028
Period end 2027-08-01		 $28.27B $23.80B–$33.58B +6.5%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Target Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Mar–May) 0.9907 -0.9% In line with trend 17
FQ2 (Jun–Aug) 0.9909 -0.9% In line with trend 17
FQ3 (Sep–Nov) 0.9978 -0.2% In line with trend 17
FQ4 (Dec–Feb) 1.0235 +2.3% In line with trend 17

Spending and Revenue

TGT Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.1659x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 73 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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