What is PEP's forecasted revenue?

Pepsico, Inc. is forecasted to generate $95.2B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing -3.1% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the PEP revenue forecast model?

The model has 2.3% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $24B versus the actual $25B.

Pepsico, Inc. PEP

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-09-05

Pepsico, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $25.3B for the period ending 2026-09-05. The model projects $95.2B across the next four quarters (-3.1% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 5.5%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-09-05. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$95.2B

-3.1% YoY

SG&A Elasticity

0.90x

Training Fit

2.3% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q3 FY2026): The model predicted $23.89B vs the actual $25.27B — an error of 5.5%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: Pepsico, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-05	$23.89B	$25.27B	$22.54B–$25.33B	-0.2%	✓ In range
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-05	$28.69B		$26.41B–$31.16B	-2.2%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-05	$18.48B		$16.70B–$20.44B	-5.0%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-05	$23.89B		$21.26B–$26.85B	-1.2%
Q3 FY2027 Period end 2027-09-05	$24.12B		$21.16B–$27.48B	-4.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Pepsico, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.9945	-0.6%	In line with trend	17
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	1.0053	+0.5%	In line with trend	18
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	0.9968	-0.3%	In line with trend	17
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	1.0033	+0.3%	In line with trend	17

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.9057x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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