Dollar General Corporation DG

Revenue Intelligence Report • 38 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-07-31

Dollar General Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $11.3B for the period ending 2026-07-31. The model projects $45.0B across the next four quarters (+3.1% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 2.1%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-07-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$45.0B
+3.1% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.75x
Training Fit
1.8% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2027): The model predicted $11.05B vs the actual $11.29B — an error of 2.1%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Dollar General Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

DG Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2026-07-31		 $11.05B $11.29B $10.28B–$11.89B +3.1% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2026-10-31		 $11.11B $10.26B–$12.03B +4.3%
Q4 FY2027
Period end 2027-01-31		 $11.13B $10.19B–$12.15B +2.0%
Q1 FY2028
Period end 2027-04-30		 $11.27B $10.21B–$12.44B +4.4%
Q2 FY2028
Period end 2027-07-31		 $11.47B $10.20B–$12.90B +1.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Dollar General Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Feb–Apr) 0.9935 -0.7% In line with trend 10
FQ2 (May–Jul) 1.0064 +0.6% In line with trend 9
FQ3 (Aug–Oct) 0.9788 -2.1% In line with trend 9
FQ4 (Nov–Jan) 1.0111 +1.1% In line with trend 9

Spending and Revenue

DG Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 38 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.3599x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -2.1%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 38 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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