Mondelez International, Inc. MDLZ

Revenue Intelligence Report • 57 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-03-31

Mondelez International, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $10.1B for the period ending 2026-03-31. The model projects $41.4B across the next four quarters (+5.2% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 2.7%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-03-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$41.4B
+5.2% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
-1.90x
Training Fit
3.6% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q1 FY2026): The model predicted $9.80B vs the actual $10.08B — an error of 2.7%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.
Note: Mondelez International, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

MDLZ Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q1 FY2026
Period end 2026-03-31		 $9.80B $10.08B $8.67B–$11.08B +5.3% ✓ In range
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $9.99B $8.79B–$11.37B +11.2%
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $10.29B $8.98B–$11.78B +5.6%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $10.71B $9.25B–$12.40B +2.0%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $10.37B $8.84B–$12.16B +2.9%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Mondelez International, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 1.0126 +1.3% In line with trend 14
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9528 -4.7% -4.7% below trend 14
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.9996 -0.0% In line with trend 14
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0218 +2.2% In line with trend 14

Spending and Revenue

MDLZ Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 57 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.3059x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -2.7%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 57 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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