What is EL's forecasted revenue?

Estee Lauder Companies Inc is forecasted to generate $14.8B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing -1.6% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the EL revenue forecast model?

The model has 3.6% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $3.4B versus the actual $3.6B.

Estee Lauder Companies Inc EL

Revenue Intelligence Report • 68 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Estee Lauder Companies Inc's latest quarterly revenue is $3.6B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $14.8B across the next four quarters (-1.6% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 6.2%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$14.8B

-1.6% YoY

SG&A Elasticity

1.25x

Training Fit

3.6% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q4 FY2026): The model predicted $3.40B vs the actual $3.63B — an error of 6.2%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: Estee Lauder Companies Inc does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$3.40B	$3.63B	$3.12B–$3.71B	-0.3%	✓ In range
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2026-09-30	$3.49B		$3.09B–$3.96B	+0.4%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2026-12-31	$4.22B		$3.62B–$4.91B	-0.2%
Q3 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$3.71B		$3.11B–$4.42B	-0.1%
Q4 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$3.39B		$2.79B–$4.12B	-6.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Estee Lauder Companies Inc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jul–Sep)	1.0236	+2.4%	In line with trend	16
FQ2 (Oct–Dec)	1.0069	+0.7%	In line with trend	16
FQ3 (Jan–Mar)	1.0026	+0.3%	In line with trend	16
FQ4 (Apr–Jun)	0.9823	-1.8%	In line with trend	15

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 68 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.501x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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