Mccormick & Co Inc MKC

Revenue Intelligence Report • 69 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-08-31

Mccormick & Co Inc's latest quarterly revenue is $2.0B for the period ending 2026-08-31. The model projects $7.8B across the next four quarters (+1.2% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 11.2%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-08-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$7.77B
+1.2% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$0.02 per $1
Training Fit
3.6% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q3 FY2026): The model predicted $1.80B vs the actual $2.02B — an error of 11.2%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Mccormick & Co Inc does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

MKC Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-08-31		 $1.80B $2.02B $1.67B–$1.92B +4.3% ✗ Outside range
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-11-30		 $1.88B $1.70B–$2.06B +1.6%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-02-28		 $1.97B $1.76B–$2.19B +5.3%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-05-31		 $2.04B $1.80B–$2.29B +5.6%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-08-31		 $1.88B $1.60B–$2.16B -7.3%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Mccormick & Co Inc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Dec–Feb) 0.9555 -4.4% -4.4% below trend 16
FQ2 (Mar–May) 0.9835 -1.7% In line with trend 16
FQ3 (Jun–Aug) 1.0046 +0.5% In line with trend 16
FQ4 (Sep–Nov) 0.9965 -0.4% In line with trend 16

Spending and Revenue

MKC Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 69 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.0686x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 69 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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