General Mills, Inc. GIS

Revenue Intelligence Report • 37 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-08-30

General Mills, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $4.4B for the period ending 2026-08-30. The model projects $17.4B across the next four quarters (-4.7% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 2.4%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-08-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$17.4B
-4.7% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$3.44 per $1
Training Fit
2.8% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q1 FY2027): The model predicted $4.50B vs the actual $4.39B — an error of 2.4%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: General Mills, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

GIS Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2026-08-30		 $4.50B $4.39B $4.12B–$4.90B -0.5% ✓ In range
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2026-11-30		 $4.44B $4.05B–$4.87B -8.6%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-02-28		 $4.39B $3.95B–$4.89B -1.0%
Q4 FY2027
Period end 2027-05-30		 $4.32B $3.90B–$4.79B -6.2%
Q1 FY2028
Period end 2027-08-30		 $4.29B $3.82B–$4.82B -2.3%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture General Mills, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jun–Aug) 0.9858 -1.4% In line with trend 9
FQ2 (Sep–Nov) 1.0371 +3.7% +3.7% above trend 9
FQ3 (Dec–Feb) 1.0063 +0.6% In line with trend 9
FQ4 (Mar–May) 0.983 -1.7% In line with trend 9

Spending and Revenue

GIS Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 37 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.0176x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is 2.4%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 37 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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