Colgate-Palmolive Company CL

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Colgate-Palmolive Company's latest quarterly revenue is $5.4B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $21.4B across the next four quarters (+1.6% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 2.2%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$21.4B
+1.6% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$2.00 per $1
Training Fit
1.2% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $5.25B vs the actual $5.36B — an error of 2.2%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Colgate-Palmolive Company does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

CL Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $5.25B $5.36B $5.05B–$5.45B +2.6% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $5.26B $5.05B–$5.49B +2.6%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $5.36B $5.13B–$5.61B +2.6%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $5.38B $5.13B–$5.64B +1.0%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $5.37B $5.10B–$5.65B +0.1%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Colgate-Palmolive Company's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9894 -1.1% In line with trend 18
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9996 -0.0% In line with trend 18
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0019 +0.2% In line with trend 18
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0055 +0.5% In line with trend 18

Spending and Revenue

CL Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.3592x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -2.2%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 73 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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