What is CAG's forecasted revenue?

Conagra Brands, Inc. is forecasted to generate $12.1B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +7.2% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the CAG revenue forecast model?

The model has 2.9% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $2.9B versus the actual $2.6B.

Conagra Brands, Inc. CAG

Revenue Intelligence Report • 13 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-08-30

Conagra Brands, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $2.6B for the period ending 2026-08-30. The model projects $12.1B across the next four quarters (+7.2% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 13.5%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-08-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$12.1B

+7.2% YoY

SG&A Multiplier

$1.08 per $1

Training Fit

2.9% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q1 FY2027): The model predicted $2.95B vs the actual $2.60B — an error of 13.5%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: Conagra Brands, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2026-08-30	$2.95B	$2.60B	$2.47B–$3.52B	+11.9%	✓ In range
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2026-11-30	$3.02B		$2.41B–$3.77B	+1.3%
Q3 FY2027 Period end 2027-02-28	$2.92B		$2.46B–$3.48B	+4.9%
Q4 FY2027 Period end 2027-05-30	$2.88B		$2.40B–$3.45B	-0.2%
Q1 FY2028 Period end 2027-08-30	$3.23B		$2.27B–$4.61B	+24.5%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Conagra Brands, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jun–Aug)	0.9979	-0.2%	In line with trend	3
FQ2 (Sep–Nov)	1.0551	+5.5%	+5.5% above trend	3
FQ3 (Dec–Feb)	0.9854	-1.5%	In line with trend	3
FQ4 (Mar–May)	0.9954	-0.5%	In line with trend	3

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 13 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.1903x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is 13.5%.

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