Dollar Tree, Inc.: Bayesian forecast status
Latest verified revenue: $4.891B for the quarter ended 2026-08-01. Reported source.
Forecasts are conditional on the listed data cutoff. Sources were refreshed for this model run on 2026-11-04; the cutoff above identifies the latest verified revenue observation used for this model review. Some forecast quarters may already have ended by the computation date. Read each target date before treating an estimate as a future-quarter outlook.
No Bayesian interval or simulated path is presented for this vintage. The earlier report below remains available for context; its ranges are not Bayesian prediction intervals.
Management guidance versus reported revenue
Latest SEC earnings candidate sources were archived where available, but an exact numerical quarterly consolidated-revenue range and target were not fully verified. This is not evidence that the company never guides.
No verified numerical quarterly consolidated-revenue guidance is plotted for this research sample. This does not establish that the company never provides guidance; annual, segment-only and qualitative outlooks are separate.
Preserved Bayesian forecast vintage
Computed 2026-11-04 using revenue through 2026-08-01. These original numbers are retained unchanged to allow subsequent scoring; they were not refitted with the new results. Forecasts computed after a target quarter ended are retrospective estimates, not pre-release predictions.
The prior Bayesian forecast was withheld: Only 10 consecutive positive revenue quarters are available; this rollout requires at least 20.
The report below retains its original forecasts, validation and company-specific discussion. Those revenue estimates use a different model or information cutoff; they are separate from the Bayesian outlook above. Any EPS model below has not been recalculated using the new Bayesian revenue paths.
Dollar Tree, Inc. DLTR
Revenue Intelligence Report • 36 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-08-01
Earlier summary (2026-10-14): Dollar Tree, Inc. has SEC quarterly revenue data through 2026-08-01. Current, continuous revenue and comparable expense data are insufficient for a spending-based forecast.
Quarterly Revenue History
| Quarter Ending | Revenue |
|---|---|
| 2017-04-29 | $5.3B |
| 2017-07-29 | $5.3B |
| 2017-10-28 | $5.3B |
| 2018-02-03 | $6.4B |
| 2018-05-05 | $5.6B |
| 2018-08-04 | $5.5B |
| 2018-11-03 | $5.5B |
| 2019-02-02 | $6.2B |
| 2019-05-04 | $5.8B |
| 2019-08-03 | $5.7B |
| 2019-11-02 | $5.7B |
| 2020-02-01 | $6.3B |
| 2020-05-02 | $6.3B |
| 2020-08-01 | $6.3B |
| 2020-10-31 | $6.2B |
| 2021-01-30 | $6.8B |
| 2021-05-01 | $6.5B |
| 2021-07-31 | $6.3B |
| 2021-10-30 | $6.4B |
| 2022-01-29 | $7.1B |
| 2022-04-30 | $6.9B |
| 2022-07-30 | $6.8B |
| 2022-10-29 | $6.9B |
| 2023-04-29 | $3.9B |
| 2023-07-29 | $3.9B |
| 2023-10-28 | $4.0B |
| 2024-05-04 | $4.2B |
| 2024-08-03 | $4.1B |
| 2024-11-02 | $4.3B |
| 2025-02-01 | $5.0B |
| 2025-05-03 | $4.6B |
| 2025-08-02 | $4.6B |
| 2025-11-01 | $4.7B |
| 2026-01-31 | $5.4B |
| 2026-05-02 | $5.0B |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.9B |
Want this analysis for your portfolio?
I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.
Get in Touch