What is HRL's forecasted revenue?

Hormel Foods Corporation is forecasted to generate $12.3B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +1.5% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the HRL revenue forecast model?

The model has 3.5% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $3.1B versus the actual $3.0B.

Hormel Foods Corporation HRL

Revenue Intelligence Report • 62 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-07-26

Hormel Foods Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $3.0B for the period ending 2026-07-26. The model projects $12.3B across the next four quarters (+1.5% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 4.0%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-07-26. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$12.3B

+1.5% YoY

SG&A Multiplier

$1.43 per $1

Training Fit

3.5% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q3 FY2026): The model predicted $3.08B vs the actual $2.96B — an error of 4.0%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: Hormel Foods Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-07-26	$3.08B	$2.96B	$2.81B–$3.35B	+1.5%	✓ In range
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-10-26	$3.18B		$2.80B–$3.56B	-0.3%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-01-26	$3.07B		$2.60B–$3.54B	+1.4%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-04-26	$2.97B		$2.43B–$3.51B	-0.0%
Q3 FY2027 Period end 2027-07-26	$3.11B		$2.50B–$3.71B	+4.9%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Hormel Foods Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Nov–Jan)	0.9689	-3.1%	-3.1% below trend	14
FQ2 (Feb–Apr)	0.9814	-1.9%	In line with trend	15
FQ3 (May–Jul)	1.0043	+0.4%	In line with trend	14
FQ4 (Aug–Oct)	1.0319	+3.2%	+3.2% above trend	14

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 62 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.1005x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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