The Hershey Company HSY

Revenue Intelligence Report • 51 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-28

The Hershey Company's latest quarterly revenue is $2.8B for the period ending 2026-06-28. The model projects $13.1B across the next four quarters (+7.4% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 0.3%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-28. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$13.1B
+7.4% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
-0.44x
Training Fit
3.4% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $2.78B vs the actual $2.79B — an error of 0.3%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.
Note: The Hershey Company does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

HSY Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-28		 $2.78B $2.79B $2.56B–$3.02B +6.3% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-28		 $3.53B $3.13B–$3.97B +10.9%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-28		 $3.28B $2.84B–$3.78B +6.0%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-28		 $3.31B $2.80B–$3.91B +6.7%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-28		 $2.95B $2.45B–$3.55B +5.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture The Hershey Company's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 1.0169 +1.7% In line with trend 12
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0068 +0.7% In line with trend 11
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0007 +0.1% In line with trend 11
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9946 -0.5% In line with trend 12

Spending and Revenue

HSY Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 51 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.7499x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 51 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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