What is KO's forecasted revenue?

Coca Cola Co is forecasted to generate $48.0B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing -2.5% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the KO revenue forecast model?

The model has 2.4% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $11B versus the actual $12B.

Coca Cola Co KO

Revenue Intelligence Report • 35 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-04-03

Coca Cola Co's latest quarterly revenue is $12.5B for the period ending 2026-04-03. The model projects $48.0B across the next four quarters (-2.5% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 11.9%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-04-03. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$48.0B

-2.5% YoY

SG&A Elasticity

0.73x

Training Fit

2.4% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q1 FY2026): The model predicted $10.99B vs the actual $12.47B — an error of 11.9%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Note: Coca Cola Co does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q1 FY2026 Period end 2026-04-03	$10.99B	$12.47B	$10.34B–$11.68B	-1.3%	✗ Outside range
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-07-03	$12.39B		$11.37B–$13.51B	-1.1%
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-10-03	$12.83B		$11.55B–$14.26B	+3.0%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2027-01-03	$12.02B		$10.64B–$13.57B	+1.6%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-04-03	$10.80B		$9.42B–$12.37B	-13.4%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Coca Cola Co's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	1.0038	+0.4%	In line with trend	7
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	1.0108	+1.1%	In line with trend	7
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	0.9936	-0.6%	In line with trend	8
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	0.9902	-1.0%	In line with trend	8

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 35 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.0151x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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