Aflac Incorporated AFL
Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Aflac Incorporated has a forecasted full-year revenue of $18B, a +6.2% year-over-year change, based on 70 quarters of SEC filing data. The ARDL model has 7.3% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (7.3% MAPE), suggesting Aflac Incorporated's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns.
Next FY Revenue
$18.2B
+6.2% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
-0.29x
Model Accuracy
7.3% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $4.1B vs the actual $4.9B — an error of 16.3%.
⚠ Model limitation:
This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Note:
Aflac Incorporated does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Investor insight:
Actual revenue ($4.9B) came in 16% above the spending-based forecast ($4.1B). This suggests that Aflac Incorporated's recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $4.1B | $4.9B | $3.3B – $5.0B | -24.7% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $4.5B | $3.4B – $6.0B | +33.1% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $4.6B | $3.2B – $6.5B | +10.1% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $4.5B | $3.0B – $6.7B | -5.9% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $4.7B | $3.0B – $7.3B | -4.4% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Aflac Incorporated's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0358 | +3.6% | +3.6% above trend | 17 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0218 | +2.2% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0054 | +0.5% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0064 | +0.6% | In line with trend | 17 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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