Ball Corporation BALL
Revenue Intelligence Report • 64 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Ball Corporation has a forecasted full-year revenue of $12B, a -6.0% year-over-year change, based on 64 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($17.85 per $1). The ARDL model has 5.8% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (5.8% MAPE), suggesting Ball Corporation's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $17.85 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$12.4B
-6.0% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$17.85 per $1
Model Accuracy
5.8% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $3.2B vs the actual $3.3B — an error of 4.3%.
Note:
Ball Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $3.2B | $3.3B | $2.8B – $3.6B | +11.2% | ✓ In range |
| Q1 2026 | $3.1B | $2.5B – $3.8B | +1.5% | ||
| Q2 2026 | $3.2B | $2.4B – $3.9B | -5.5% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $3.1B | $2.2B – $4.0B | -8.5% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $3.0B | $2.0B – $4.0B | -10.8% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Ball Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0119 | +1.2% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.947 | -5.3% | -5.3% below trend | 16 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9796 | -2.0% | In line with trend | 14 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.044 | +4.4% | +4.4% above trend | 14 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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