Lyondellbasell Industries N.v. LYB

Revenue Intelligence Report • 62 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Lyondellbasell Industries N.v.'s latest quarterly revenue is $9.2B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $33.1B across the next four quarters (+6.2% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 4.6%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$33.1B
+6.2% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$194.99 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$-8.04 per $1
Training Fit
13.7% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $8.75B vs the actual $9.18B — an error of 4.6%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Revenue Forecast

LYB Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $8.75B $9.18B $6.00B–$11.50B +14.3% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $8.54B $4.66B–$12.43B +10.6%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $7.42B $2.66B–$12.18B +4.6%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $7.94B $2.44B–$13.44B +10.3%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $9.22B $3.07B–$15.37B +0.5%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Lyondellbasell Industries N.v.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9724 -2.8% In line with trend 15
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0004 +0.0% In line with trend 14
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0196 +2.0% In line with trend 14
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9601 -4.0% -4.0% below trend 14

Spending and Revenue

LYB Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 62 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.2745x • R&D elasticity: 0.899x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 62 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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