Avery Dennison Corporation AVY

Revenue Intelligence Report • 69 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Avery Dennison Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $2.5B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $9.1B across the next four quarters (-1.2% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 8.8%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$9.14B
-1.2% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.49x
Training Fit
2.7% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $2.25B vs the actual $2.46B — an error of 8.8%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Avery Dennison Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

AVY Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $2.25B $2.46B $2.10B–$2.41B +1.1% ✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $2.24B $2.04B–$2.47B +1.3%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $2.30B $2.05B–$2.60B +1.5%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $2.32B $2.02B–$2.66B +0.9%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $2.27B $1.95B–$2.65B -7.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Avery Dennison Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9699 -3.0% -3.0% below trend 17
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0266 +2.7% In line with trend 16
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0012 +0.1% In line with trend 16
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9969 -0.3% In line with trend 16

Spending and Revenue

AVY Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 69 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.6849x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 69 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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