Martin Marietta Materials, Inc MLM

Revenue Intelligence Report • 69 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Martin Marietta Materials, Inc's latest quarterly revenue is $1.9B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $6.3B across the next four quarters (-5.5% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 21.9%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$6.32B
-5.5% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.77x
Training Fit
8.6% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $1.52B vs the actual $1.95B — an error of 21.9%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Martin Marietta Materials, Inc does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.
Investor insight: Actual revenue ($1.9B) came in 22% above the spending-based forecast ($1.5B). This suggests that Martin Marietta Materials, Inc's recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

MLM Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $1.52B $1.95B $1.16B–$1.99B -5.5% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $1.85B $1.26B–$2.70B -0.1%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $1.48B $924.0M–$2.35B -3.8%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $1.47B $854.7M–$2.52B +7.7%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $1.53B $838.6M–$2.81B -21.2%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Martin Marietta Materials, Inc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9629 -3.7% -3.7% below trend 16
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0542 +5.4% +5.4% above trend 16
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0192 +1.9% In line with trend 16
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0145 +1.4% In line with trend 16

Spending and Revenue

MLM Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 69 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.0181x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 69 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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