Nucor Corp NUE

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-07-04

Nucor Corp's latest quarterly revenue is $10.4B for the period ending 2026-07-04. The model projects $39.4B across the next four quarters (+9.2% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 9.8%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-07-04. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$39.4B
+9.2% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$15.56 per $1
Training Fit
5.5% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $9.38B vs the actual $10.40B — an error of 9.8%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Nucor Corp does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

NUE Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-07-04		 $9.38B $10.40B $8.65B–$10.11B +10.9% ✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-10-04		 $9.11B $8.08B–$10.15B +7.0%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2027-01-04		 $9.58B $8.31B–$10.84B +24.6%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-04-04		 $10.34B $8.88B–$11.80B +8.9%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-07-04		 $10.37B $8.74B–$12.01B -0.2%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Nucor Corp's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 1.0313 +3.1% +3.1% above trend 17
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0042 +0.4% In line with trend 17
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0213 +2.1% In line with trend 17
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.977 -2.3% In line with trend 17

Spending and Revenue

NUE Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.7878x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Want this analysis for your portfolio?

I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.

Get in Touch

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 73 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

More in Basic Materials

PPG CRH DD IP STLD MLM ALB FCX