Corteva, Inc. CTVA

Revenue Intelligence Report • 34 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Corteva, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $6.4B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $22.9B across the next four quarters (+28.8% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 18.2%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$22.9B
+28.8% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$-36.98 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$22.92 per $1
Training Fit
4.0% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $7.54B vs the actual $6.38B — an error of 18.2%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.
Investor insight: Actual revenue ($6.4B) came in 18% below the spending-based forecast ($7.5B). This suggests spending is not yet translating to revenue at historical rates.

Revenue Forecast

CTVA Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $7.54B $6.38B $7.18B–$7.90B +16.8% ✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $2.87B $2.36B–$3.38B +9.7%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $4.87B $4.24B–$5.49B +24.5%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $6.01B $5.29B–$6.73B +22.5%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $9.20B $8.39B–$10.01B +44.2%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Corteva, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 1.004 +0.4% In line with trend 8
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0112 +1.1% In line with trend 7
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.9986 -0.1% In line with trend 7
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9977 -0.2% In line with trend 7

Spending and Revenue

CTVA Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 34 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.4841x • R&D elasticity: -1.4027x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 34 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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