Bunge Global Sa BG

Revenue Intelligence Report • 13 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-03-31

Bunge Global Sa's latest quarterly revenue is $4.7B for the period ending 2026-03-31. The model projects $37.2B across the next four quarters (-16.4% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 19.7%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-03-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$37.2B
-16.4% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
-0.69x
Training Fit
46.3% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q1 FY2026): The model predicted $3.74B vs the actual $4.66B — an error of 19.7%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.
Note: Bunge Global Sa does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.
Investor insight: Actual revenue ($4.7B) came in 20% above the spending-based forecast ($3.7B). This suggests that Bunge Global Sa's recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

BG Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q1 FY2026
Period end 2026-03-31		 $3.74B $4.66B $1.41B–$9.94B +2.1% ✓ In range
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $11.02B $2.77B–$43.86B -13.7%
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $18.36B $3.38B–$99.71B -17.1%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $4.49B $636.5M–$31.69B -8.1%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $3.31B $372.1M–$29.38B -29.0%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Bunge Global Sa's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 1.2482 +24.8% +24.8% above trend 2
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.1425 +14.3% +14.3% above trend 3
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.5048 +50.5% +50.5% above trend 3
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.4534 -54.7% -54.7% below trend 3

Spending and Revenue

BG Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 13 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.8383x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Want this analysis for your portfolio?

I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.

Get in Touch

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 13 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

More in Basic Materials

SHW MLM BALL DD SW AVY IP LYB