Amcor Plc AMCR

Revenue Intelligence Report • 32 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Amcor Plc's latest quarterly revenue is $6.4B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $50.3B across the next four quarters (+114.1% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 33.1%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$50.3B
+114.1% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$152.34 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$10.96 per $1
Training Fit
4.2% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $8.52B vs the actual $6.40B — an error of 33.1%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Investor insight: Actual revenue ($6.4B) came in 33% below the spending-based forecast ($8.5B). This suggests spending is not yet translating to revenue at historical rates.

Revenue Forecast

AMCR Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $8.52B $6.40B $7.19B–$10.09B +67.6% ✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $11.21B $9.11B–$13.79B +95.1%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $9.73B $7.91B–$11.97B +78.6%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $12.20B $9.63B–$15.45B +106.3%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $17.20B $12.77B–$23.16B +168.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Amcor Plc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9856 -1.4% In line with trend 8
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0439 +4.4% +4.4% above trend 7
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.973 -2.7% In line with trend 8
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9998 -0.0% In line with trend 8

Spending and Revenue

AMCR Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 32 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.1131x • R&D elasticity: 1.0738x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is 33.1%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 32 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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