Steel Dynamics, Inc. STLD

Revenue Intelligence Report • 14 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Steel Dynamics, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $6.1B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $26.0B across the next four quarters (+26.6% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 8.5%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$26.0B
+26.6% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$3.89 per $1
Training Fit
4.1% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $5.57B vs the actual $6.09B — an error of 8.5%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Steel Dynamics, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

STLD Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $5.57B $6.09B $4.39B–$7.08B +22.1% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $5.98B $4.53B–$7.91B +24.0%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $6.01B $4.72B–$7.64B +36.1%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $6.04B $4.78B–$7.63B +16.1%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $7.96B $4.94B–$12.83B +30.7%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Steel Dynamics, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 1.0273 +2.7% In line with trend 4
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0307 +3.1% +3.1% above trend 3
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0056 +0.6% In line with trend 3
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.913 -8.7% -8.7% below trend 3

Spending and Revenue

STLD Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 14 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.4123x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -8.5%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 14 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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