Freeport-Mcmoran Inc. FCX

Revenue Intelligence Report • 57 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Freeport-Mcmoran Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $6.9B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $22.3B across the next four quarters (-11.6% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 13.1%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$22.3B
-11.6% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
-0.08x
Training Fit
10.3% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $6.01B vs the actual $6.92B — an error of 13.1%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.
Note: Freeport-Mcmoran Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

FCX Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $6.01B $6.92B $4.61B–$7.83B -20.2% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $5.81B $3.99B–$8.44B -14.9%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $5.64B $3.57B–$8.92B +7.1%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $5.49B $3.23B–$9.32B -12.2%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $5.38B $2.98B–$9.72B -22.2%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Freeport-Mcmoran Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9685 -3.1% -3.1% below trend 14
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.043 +4.3% +4.3% above trend 13
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0372 +3.7% +3.7% above trend 14
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0008 +0.1% In line with trend 14

Spending and Revenue

FCX Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 57 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.4059x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 57 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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