What is SOLV's forecasted revenue?

Solventum Corporation is forecasted to generate $7.95B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing -4.3% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the SOLV revenue forecast model?

The model has 0.5% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $2.0B versus the actual $2.2B.

Solventum Corporation SOLV

Revenue Intelligence Report • 14 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Solventum Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $2.2B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $7.9B across the next four quarters (-4.3% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 8.8%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$7.95B

-4.3% YoY

R&D Multiplier

$6.69 per $1

SG&A Multiplier

$0.12 per $1

Training Fit

0.5% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $2.01B vs the actual $2.21B — an error of 8.8%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q2 FY2026 Period end 2026-06-30	$2.01B	$2.21B	$1.99B–$2.04B	-6.8%	✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026 Period end 2026-09-30	$2.06B		$2.03B–$2.09B	-1.7%
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-12-31	$1.99B		$1.95B–$2.03B	-0.5%
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2027-03-31	$1.95B		$1.91B–$2.00B	-2.6%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-06-30	$1.95B		$1.89B–$2.00B	-11.9%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Solventum Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar)	0.9975	-0.3%	In line with trend	3
FQ2 (Apr–Jun)	1.0062	+0.6%	In line with trend	2
FQ3 (Jul–Sep)	1.001	+0.1%	In line with trend	3
FQ4 (Oct–Dec)	0.9988	-0.1%	In line with trend	3

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 14 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.3605x • R&D elasticity: 0.068x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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