Albemarle Corporation ALB

Revenue Intelligence Report • 50 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Albemarle Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $1.7B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $7.4B across the next four quarters (+26.0% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 14.1%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$7.45B
+26.0% YoY
R&D Elasticity
-0.89x
SG&A Elasticity
0.60x
Training Fit
9.5% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $1.50B vs the actual $1.74B — an error of 14.1%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Revenue Forecast

ALB Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $1.50B $1.74B $1.16B–$1.94B +12.6% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $1.66B $1.15B–$2.39B +27.0%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $1.82B $1.17B–$2.85B +27.6%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $1.90B $1.14B–$3.18B +33.0%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $2.06B $1.16B–$3.67B +18.3%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Albemarle Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9441 -5.6% -5.6% below trend 12
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0319 +3.2% +3.2% above trend 12
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.9563 -4.4% -4.4% below trend 12
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0489 +4.9% +4.9% above trend 12

Spending and Revenue

ALB Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 50 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.8509x • R&D elasticity: 0.182x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 50 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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