Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. APD

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $3.2B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $12.0B across the next four quarters (-4.4% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 5.5%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$12.0B
-4.4% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.72x
Training Fit
4.2% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q3 FY2026): The model predicted $2.99B vs the actual $3.16B — an error of 5.5%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

APD Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $2.99B $3.16B $2.66B–$3.35B -1.2% ✓ In range
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $2.99B $2.54B–$3.52B -5.6%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2026-12-31		 $3.07B $2.51B–$3.74B -1.2%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $3.07B $2.44B–$3.86B -3.2%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $2.92B $2.26B–$3.78B -7.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Oct–Dec) 0.9751 -2.5% In line with trend 17
FQ2 (Jan–Mar) 0.9886 -1.1% In line with trend 17
FQ3 (Apr–Jun) 1.003 +0.3% In line with trend 17
FQ4 (Jul–Sep) 1.0156 +1.6% In line with trend 17

Spending and Revenue

APD Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.0365x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 73 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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