Ball Corporation BALL

Revenue Intelligence Report • 57 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Ball Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $4.0B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $14.9B across the next four quarters (+3.8% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 13.9%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$14.9B
+3.8% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.01x
Training Fit
7.4% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $3.44B vs the actual $4.00B — an error of 13.9%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Ball Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

BALL Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $3.44B $4.00B $2.70B–$4.39B +3.1% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $3.43B $2.65B–$4.45B +1.6%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $3.77B $2.86B–$4.97B +12.6%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $3.86B $2.87B–$5.19B +7.1%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $3.80B $2.76B–$5.24B -4.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Ball Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9377 -6.2% -6.2% below trend 14
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0339 +3.4% +3.4% above trend 14
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0652 +6.5% +6.5% above trend 14
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9645 -3.6% -3.6% below trend 14

Spending and Revenue

BALL Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 57 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.4792x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -13.9%.

Want this analysis for your portfolio?

I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.

Get in Touch

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 57 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

More in Basic Materials

DD MLM NUE PPG CTVA BG ALB MOS