Smurfit Westrock Plc SW

Revenue Intelligence Report • 12 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Smurfit Westrock Plc's latest quarterly revenue is $8.0B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $36.9B across the next four quarters (+17.8% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 11.1%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$36.9B
+17.8% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.06x
Training Fit
1.3% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $8.92B vs the actual $8.03B — an error of 11.1%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Smurfit Westrock Plc does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

SW Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $8.92B $8.03B $8.65B–$9.19B +12.3% ✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $8.98B $8.60B–$9.38B +12.2%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $8.63B $8.18B–$9.09B +13.8%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $8.99B $8.46B–$9.56B +16.6%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $10.29B $9.61B–$11.01B +28.1%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Smurfit Westrock Plc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9878 -1.2% In line with trend 3
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.003 +0.3% In line with trend 2
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0118 +1.2% In line with trend 2
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0034 +0.3% In line with trend 2

Spending and Revenue

SW Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 12 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 1.3916x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Want this analysis for your portfolio?

I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.

Get in Touch

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 12 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

More in Basic Materials

FCX ALB MLM PPG AVY LYB BG CTVA