Franklin Resources, Inc. BEN

Revenue Intelligence Report • 49 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue is driven by SG&A spending efficiency, with every $1 of SG&A generating $1.60 in long-run revenue, implying a 1.60x ROI on SG&A investments. A linear model with 2.4% MAPE and a holdout test predicting $2.3B versus actual $2.3B demonstrates forecasting credibility. The latest quarterly revenue was $2.327B, aligning with the near-term trajectory. For the full year, revenue is forecast at $9.3B, up 6.1% year over year, indicating a steady growth path supported by SG&A-driven revenue expansion.

Investment Thesis

Our ARDL model tracks Franklin Resources, Inc.'s revenue with exceptional precision (2.4% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $1.60 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue
$9.29B
+6.1% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$1.60 per $1
Model Accuracy
2.4% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $2.3B vs the actual $2.3B — an error of 2.4%.
Note: Franklin Resources, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

BEN Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q3 2025 $2.3B $2.3B $2.1B – $2.4B +6.9% ✓ In range
Q4 2025 $2.3B $2.1B – $2.4B +0.2%
Q1 2026 $2.3B $2.1B – $2.5B +8.7%
Q2 2026 $2.4B $2.1B – $2.6B +15.0%
Q3 2026 $2.4B $2.1B – $2.6B +1.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Franklin Resources, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov) 1.0 +0.0% In line with trend 0
FQ2 (Dec–Feb) 1.0087 +0.9% In line with trend 15
FQ3 (Mar–May) 1.0108 +1.1% In line with trend 15
FQ4 (Jun–Aug) 0.9938 -0.6% In line with trend 15

How Spending Drives Revenue

BEN Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. Model: ARDL (linear) with 49 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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