What is BEN's forecasted revenue?

Franklin Resources, Inc. is forecasted to generate $9.29B in FY revenue, representing +6.1% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the BEN revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 2.4% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $2.3B versus the actual $2.3B.

Franklin Resources, Inc. BEN

Revenue Intelligence Report • 49 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue is driven by SG&A spending efficiency, with every $1 of SG&A generating $1.60 in long-run revenue, implying a 1.60x ROI on SG&A investments. A linear model with 2.4% MAPE and a holdout test predicting $2.3B versus actual $2.3B demonstrates forecasting credibility. The latest quarterly revenue was $2.327B, aligning with the near-term trajectory. For the full year, revenue is forecast at $9.3B, up 6.1% year over year, indicating a steady growth path supported by SG&A-driven revenue expansion.

Investment Thesis

Our ARDL model tracks Franklin Resources, Inc.'s revenue with exceptional precision (2.4% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $1.60 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue

$9.29B

+6.1% YoY

SG&A Multiplier

$1.60 per $1

Model Accuracy

2.4% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $2.3B vs the actual $2.3B — an error of 2.4%.

Note: Franklin Resources, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q3 2025	$2.3B	$2.3B	$2.1B – $2.4B	+6.9%	✓ In range
Q4 2025	$2.3B		$2.1B – $2.4B	+0.2%
Q1 2026	$2.3B		$2.1B – $2.5B	+8.7%
Q2 2026	$2.4B		$2.1B – $2.6B	+15.0%
Q3 2026	$2.4B		$2.1B – $2.6B	+1.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Franklin Resources, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov)	1.0	+0.0%	In line with trend	0
FQ2 (Dec–Feb)	1.0087	+0.9%	In line with trend	15
FQ3 (Mar–May)	1.0108	+1.1%	In line with trend	15
FQ4 (Jun–Aug)	0.9938	-0.6%	In line with trend	15

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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