Bristol-Myers Squibb Company BMY
Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company has a forecasted full-year revenue of $49B, a +1.4% year-over-year change, based on 70 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include R&D (elasticity 0.86x) and SG&A (elasticity 1.07x). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 4.3% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (4.3% MAPE), suggesting Bristol-Myers Squibb Company's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. R&D investment shows a 0.86x multiplier — each 1% increase in R&D spend is associated with a 0.86% revenue increase, signaling strong innovation-to-revenue conversion. Sales & marketing spend shows a 1.07x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $12B | $13B | $11B – $14B | -1.4% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $12B | $10B – $15B | +8.9% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $12B | $9.9B – $15B | -0.4% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $12B | $9.6B – $16B | +0.0% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $12B | $9.3B – $16B | -2.2% |
Seasonal Factors
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9862 | -1.4% | In line with trend | 18 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9893 | -1.1% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0112 | +1.1% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0222 | +2.2% | In line with trend | 17 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
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