Bristol-Myers Squibb Company BMY

Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Bristol-Myers Squibb Company has a forecasted full-year revenue of $49B, a +1.4% year-over-year change, based on 70 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include R&D (elasticity 0.86x) and SG&A (elasticity 1.07x). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 4.3% MAPE.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (4.3% MAPE), suggesting Bristol-Myers Squibb Company's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. R&D investment shows a 0.86x multiplier — each 1% increase in R&D spend is associated with a 0.86% revenue increase, signaling strong innovation-to-revenue conversion. Sales & marketing spend shows a 1.07x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue
$48.9B
+1.4% YoY
R&D Elasticity
0.86x
SG&A Elasticity
1.07x
Model Accuracy
4.3% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $12B vs the actual $13B — an error of 2.7%.

Revenue Forecast

BMY Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $12B $13B $11B – $14B -1.4% ✓ In range
Q2 2026 $12B $10B – $15B +8.9%
Q3 2026 $12B $9.9B – $15B -0.4%
Q4 2026 $12B $9.6B – $16B +0.0%
Q1 2027 $12B $9.3B – $16B -2.2%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Bristol-Myers Squibb Company's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov) 0.9862 -1.4% In line with trend 18
FQ2 (Dec–Feb) 0.9893 -1.1% In line with trend 17
FQ3 (Mar–May) 1.0112 +1.1% In line with trend 17
FQ4 (Jun–Aug) 1.0222 +2.2% In line with trend 17

How Spending Drives Revenue

BMY Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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