Cdw Corp CDW

Revenue Intelligence Report • 62 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

The latest quarterly revenue came in at $5.511 billion. In the log-log model, SG&A spending has a negative revenue elasticity of about -0.24 per 1% SG&A increase, implying modestly negative ROI on SG&A growth unless offset by margin gains or other revenue drivers. The model shows solid accuracy with a 3.9% MAPE and a holdout error of 4.0% (predicted $5.3B vs actual $5.5B) based on 62 quarters of data. For the full year, revenue is forecast around $22B, down 1.2% year over year, signaling a cautious near-term outlook where SG&A efficiency and other growth levers will be central to sustaining momentum.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (3.9% MAPE), suggesting Cdw Corp's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns.

Next FY Revenue
$22.1B
-1.2% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
-0.24x
Model Accuracy
3.9% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $5.3B vs the actual $5.5B — an error of 4.0%.
⚠ Model limitation: This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Note: Cdw Corp does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

CDW Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $5.3B $5.5B $4.8B – $5.8B +2.0% ✓ In range
Q2 2026 $5.3B $4.7B – $6.1B +2.2%
Q3 2026 $5.8B $4.9B – $6.8B -3.8%
Q4 2026 $5.7B $4.8B – $6.9B -0.3%
Q1 2027 $5.4B $4.4B – $6.6B -2.7%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Cdw Corp's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov) 0.9865 -1.4% In line with trend 15
FQ2 (Dec–Feb) 1.0047 +0.5% In line with trend 15
FQ3 (Mar–May) 0.9786 -2.1% In line with trend 14
FQ4 (Jun–Aug) 1.0456 +4.6% +4.6% above trend 14

How Spending Drives Revenue

CDW Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. Model: ARDL (log-log) with 62 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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