Salesforce, Inc. CRM

Revenue Intelligence Report • 73 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-07-31

Salesforce, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $11.3B for the period ending 2026-07-31. The model projects $48.3B across the next four quarters (+9.9% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 1.1%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-07-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$48.3B
+9.9% YoY
R&D Elasticity
0.40x
SG&A Elasticity
0.82x
Training Fit
0.9% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2027): The model predicted $11.22B vs the actual $11.35B — an error of 1.1%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

CRM Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2026-07-31		 $11.22B $11.35B $10.87B–$11.58B +9.6% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2026-10-31		 $11.39B $10.98B–$11.82B +11.0%
Q4 FY2027
Period end 2027-01-31		 $12.40B $11.89B–$12.94B +10.7%
Q1 FY2028
Period end 2027-04-30		 $12.13B $11.57B–$12.72B +9.0%
Q2 FY2028
Period end 2027-07-31		 $12.38B $11.73B–$13.06B +9.1%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Salesforce, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Feb–Apr) 0.9979 -0.2% In line with trend 18
FQ2 (May–Jul) 1.0032 +0.3% In line with trend 18
FQ3 (Aug–Oct) 1.0013 +0.1% In line with trend 18
FQ4 (Nov–Jan) 0.9978 -0.2% In line with trend 18

Spending and Revenue

CRM Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 73 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.446x • R&D elasticity: -0.0974x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -1.1%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 73 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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