Tyler Technologies, Inc TYL

Revenue Intelligence Report • 18 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Tyler Technologies, Inc's latest quarterly revenue is $645M for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $2.7B across the next four quarters (+9.6% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 2.0%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$2.66B
+9.6% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$8.31 per $1
Training Fit
1.2% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $657.9M vs the actual $645.1M — an error of 2.0%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: Tyler Technologies, Inc does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

TYL Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $657.9M $645.1M $641.9M–$673.9M +10.4% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $642.1M $619.4M–$664.8M +7.8%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $629.2M $601.5M–$657.0M +9.4%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $677.5M $645.4M–$709.5M +10.4%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $713.7M $677.8M–$749.5M +10.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Tyler Technologies, Inc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 1.0057 +0.6% In line with trend 4
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0 +0.0% In line with trend 3
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0013 +0.1% In line with trend 3
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9831 -1.7% In line with trend 4

Spending and Revenue

TYL Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 18 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.1571x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 18 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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